Narrowed but Stable: Decomposing the SES Gradient in Tertiary Educational Expectations Across 33 OECD Countries, 2003-2022

Status

Under review.

Summary

Educational expectations predict later attainment, and they differ by socio-economic status (SES). Part of this difference runs through achievement. The rest remains among students with the same achievement. I ask how large each part is, and whether the balance changed during two decades of tertiary expansion. If achievement carried most of the gap, higher test scores would equalise expectations. I use five PISA cycles from 2003 to 2022 (1,012,708 students in 33 OECD countries) and three TIMSS Grade 8 cycles from 2011 to 2019 (205,209 students in 17 countries). The outcome is whether a student expects at least a bachelor’s degree. Multilevel logistic models split the SES gradient into the part that achievement mediates and the direct part.